2 days ago. Both are inflationary to housing and do nothing to address affordability. 8%mom in March, the first monthly increase since April 2022 and the largest monthly increase since January 2022. @cjoye RBA speech just published: almost 30% of Aussie borrowers will suffer a more than 40% increase in their mortgage repayments if the RBA lifts the cash rate by 300 basis points, though concludes everything will be ok in that event. @Dante57112893. ”“Yep. May 2. 1. . Lower bound of our 15-25pc forecast correction could be an optimistic outcome…”Log in. However, the. com. what you choose? We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Retweets. 3. Verified account Protected Tweets @; Suggested users“Worst house price declines in 42 years, with more to come. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. @TheKouk · Jul 8. Aug 16. . ly/3tKymvn 8:25 PM · Nov 21, 2022 · Twitter Web App@cjoye Aussie house price update to 25 July: Sydney prices down 1. Master Your Unstoppable Mindset. Ave wage vs ave savings vs ave mortgage debt does not compute in my mind-who can afford a $600k mortgage at 7% without it destroying monthly income?”“@cjoye See through the noise with China - they are in population decline as Poor Japan v2. Sign upWe would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. There was only one way to go. @cjoye. Quote Tweet. Log in. Just think your narrow focus on interest rates as the main driver of house prices and that prices will fall 30% is consistent with many of you other views. 10% in more pain for borrowers and home owners. 4% pa return. 2%. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. GS have published research on what Australia's inflation rate looks like using the new monthly data, crucially excluding items the ABS does not collect information on (and imputes to have no change). While all costs (interest, rates, land tax, utility, body corp, maintenance) are against investors, 2m deposit gives u 100k effortless money. Plus ,Bitcoin and Ethereum are down less than tech stocks. au “GS have published research on what Australia's inflation rate looks like using the new monthly data, crucially excluding items the ABS does not collect information on (and imputes to have no change). @cjoye. 8:58 PM · Oct 5, 2022 · Twitter Web App. 7% in July; Melbourne prices down 1. Log in. . Like. Replying to @cjoye @Harold36089778. Given the number of markets that have had this set up and tanked. . “GS: Australian capital-city dwelling prices rose +0. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. A $14m unsecured loan will cover the client loss, creating a $32m debt for Huobi Like I said before: there will be unpredictable fall out from FTX in. Verified account Protected Tweets @; Suggested users “Worst house price declines in 42 years, with more to come. 1%, declining at a 17% annual rate, while Brisbane prices fall at 20% annual rate bit. And inflation isn't coming down anytime soon with rents increasing Rate cuts in 2023 will simply shoot inflation back up. Log in. Replying to . Likes. 65% in November. Verified account Protected Tweets @; Suggested usersWe would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Interesting to see Treasurer Jim Chalmers trying to directly jawbone the RBA into not hiking by arguing that the inflation result does not meet. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Try and think of the whole story not the macro people want you to hear and fear”In this conversation. “@cjoye Modi had highest voters support among all democratic countries! As Paul Keating repeatedly pointed out, Albo is just a sucker!”We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. 76% from 0. Log in. @cjoye I still haven’t seen you clearly outline why rates will stay high over the medium to long term, when nothing has fundamentally permanently changed since 2019. Embarrassingly wrong. christopher joye. 1%; Brisbane prices down 0. The bears are gonna start running for the hills when they see wolverine chasing em”We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. 4% followed by Brisbane (-8. Redirecting to /cjoye/status/1675386755422494722Embed Tweet. Melb also up: 67. Don’t know anyone else that predicted that. ” christopher joye on Twitter: "Good morning!" / Twitter. Huobi announced $18. RT @CommSec: In our latest Executive Series interview we sat down with @cjoye from Coolabah Capital to chat about wide range of issues including recent collapse of. @cjoye. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Some areas down -25. “@cjoye It seems a bit silly to me that an actor, doing an advert, with a script, on the television, should suddenly become a financial commentator on cryptocurrencies. 5%. ConversationIn this conversation. Wonderfully cherry picked data in desperation to keep credibility of the narrative that allows them to be defenders of last resort of the great Australian credit fuelled housing bubble. new Tweets. . ”“@Fuffalufaguz @cjoye I bought at top 23 year old fixed rate 14 percent price tanked was in negative equity for 10 years house needed totally renovated sold for same price after all interest bills and pound bought nearly half what it would everyone is conned by media having to have what everyone has”We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. ALT. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. . …”We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Log in. @cjoye. . We have unscrambled the letters cjoye (cejoy) to make a list of all the word combinations found in the popular word scramble. @cjoye. I'm often asked how much time/effort it takes to write an AFR column. “@cjoye Japan took over 10 years from peak to 'bottom' with a similar size bubble. ”While lots of people talk about the risk of war without actually understanding the odds, new research sheds light on the probability of major power conflict. #ausecon @felicity_emmett @AdelaideTimbrel. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Verified account Protected Tweets @; Suggested usersIn this conversation. 6pc. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. 5%; 5 capital cities have fallen 3. “@cjoye Step forward for transparency, but still doesn’t stop more/different things being said in other forums (or by other RBA officials). 85% to 4. christopher [email protected] @DrCameronMurray: Has anyone pulled together a list of all the wrong predictions about the housing market from mid-2020? If I recall, predictions of 30% price falls were common. I believe this includes offset accounts. Quote Tweet. You are right to hesitate on price directions for houses - low listings are contributing to price stability, but so are rents increasing by 25% ($120 pw on $500 pw) and many buyers paying cash (not first home buyers). Why are they silent on the stock NFLX performance???”“Westpac/MI Australian Consumer Confidence now lower than GFC levels--and aside from March 2020, the lowest since 1990. It’s funny because traders on the street know that on Friday mornings, I will be buried in one. Prepare for equities and property pain. Log inWe would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. May 15, 2023 - 9:29AM. In levels terms, capital-city dwelling prices…”@cjoye. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Aug 16. . The latest tweets from @cjoye Dante. “Morning!”We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. The wage costs for businesses producing products is far too high and can only be addressed by greater productivity, which means fewer workers. Replying to. @cjoye · Aug 5. Rebounding asset prices would keep inflation - and rates - higher for longer. Sydney is off 10. #ausecon @felicity_emmett @AdelaideTimbrel. 6%; 5 city index prices down 1. 10:21 PM · Jul 8, 2022 · Twitter for iPhone. “@TvcMike @cjoye tech/growth/risk assets, makes any real sense. See new Tweetschristopher joye on Twitter: "RT @eurekareport: On Talking Finance this week with @AlanKohler: central banks face a longer, harder task to get inflation down; dodging an Australian recession; an inflationary budget & opposition in the opposition ft. In this conversation. There was only one way to go. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. You've reached your limit when it comes to tweeting about bitcoin being under $20k. Well done. 3. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. In this conversation. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. CHRIS JUDD’S Masters of the Market Masters of the Market is back for 2021 and the first episode of the year is with CIO of Coolabah Capital and columnist for the AFR, Chris. Immigrants need groceries, cars, bank accounts, etc”“Westpac data shows that exactly 50% of all borrowers are less than one month ahead on their mortgage repayments, or behind. . The business indicators measure of wages suggests annual growth in non-farm hourly earnings picked up to 5% in Q1, although this series has grown more strongly than the RBA’s series over the past year. @cjoye In an apartment complex of 100, it only takes 2 or 3 sales to mark down the whole 100. @cjoye The monthly CPI showed underlying inflation remains uncomfortably high, tracking above the RBA’s forecast profile and placing pressure on the RBA to hike again in July, where its peers are confronting the same problem of it taking too long for inflation to return to target with much higher interest rates. @cjoye was one of the few to go against this IIRC. ”We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Both of which disproportionately affect the bottom 50% of households. Verified account Protected Tweets @; Suggested usersAussie house prices are continuing to fall at a very rapid pace in December based on early data fromWe would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Sign upDay of valuations reckoning looms for commercial real estate owners, valuers and auditors. In this conversation. ”We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Sydney (+1. Australia faces "largest and longest house price correction in history" According to CoreLogic records dating back to 1980, Australian dwelling values have never fallen by more than 11% across the combined. Welcome to the Complexity Premia podcast from Coolabah Capital, which is hosted by Christopher Joye, CIO and portfolio manager at Coolabah Capital. Since first RBA May hike, Syd/national market has fallen at 23%/14% annualised pace. House price declines not likely to slow until RBA stops hiking. These people need equity Plenty of people get paid goid money a d know very little of what they do The lesson is the herd mentality is alive and well On the way uo! All the way down Probability market crash epic proportions Going to be like the car market but even more acute We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Binance Australia selling bitcoin $6k cheaper than other exchanges. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. christopher joye on Twitter. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. @cjoye Sydney house prices have fallen 11. Sign upWe would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. 8%mom in March, the first monthly increase since April 2022 and the largest monthly increase since January 2022. )”We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. “@cjoye @PeteWargent Both this and Labor shared equity policy are attempts to shore up supporter bases/buy votes. 9% vs 56. “Bitcoin down at US$20k again, but Aussie house prices stabilising once more while equities tank. Verified account Protected Tweets @; Suggested usersWe would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. “@cjoye Sir. It. @cjoye/Twitter) Shark clamps onto diver's leg as blood and screams pour out in attack video. We await policy details to review our outlook". 3. This chart from Bloomberg provides a good summary of consensus estimates. . It'll work right up until the point it is discovered that debt outstrips M2 money by a factor of 10:1 . com. Interesting to see Treasurer Jim Chalmers trying to directly jawbone the RBA into not hiking by arguing that the inflation result does not meet the "material" upside surprise test Bullock set - despite every economist and the market saying it does. Log in. ”Log in. christopher joye on Twitter. macrobusiness. com. @cjoye @PodcastFear. “Bitcoin down at US$20k again, but Aussie house prices stabilising once more while equities tank. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. IR here are… Show more . Visit cjoye's profile on Zillow to find ratings and reviews. com. “@BruceMeaney @cjoye I don’t know if it’s good. I doubt the rise over the previous Q was sustainable, given the reduction in borrowing power. Grrrr”“@cjoye Thoughts on bank and esp. christopher joye @cjoye 7h One of the more interesting questions going around is whether bonds issued for environment, social and/or governance (ESG) purposes attract a lower of cost of capital than normal debt instruments without an ESG label. . 3:30 AM · May 20, 2022 · Twitter Web App. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Drone pilot Christopher Joye, who captured the footage, said: "Swimmers would not believe there was a. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Conversation. This is deflationary. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. 7% in 11 days of Aug); Melb down 3. Team Talk: Cowboys 2023 overview, best 17, squad update. 85% to 4. 5% plus 1% productivity. Someone did the math on how the housing ponzi affects this generation compared to the days of old. . 6 billion Snowy Hydro…We've been forecasting a US recession since Jan 2022, which the market has recently converged on. There were good re“@Sporticus13 @cjoye @TheKouk I was wondering the other day how much of Wayne Swan’s unfulfilled budget surplus was the result of Koukie’s crystal ball. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. It's very unstable at the street level. . “Aussie house price crash about to pass through all-time record of an 11% peak-to-trough loss. You are right to hesitate on price directions for houses - low listings are contributing to price stability, but so are rents increasing by 25% ($120 pw on $500 pw) and many buyers paying cash (not first home buyers). ”christopher joye on Twitter: "Good morning!" / Twitter. In levels terms, capital-city dwelling prices…” Higher long-term risk-free cash rates are going to create a protracted pain trade for risky assets. com. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. First miss on EPS since IPO, I think. . Bang on our forecast for 15-25% cumulative loss. “Real interest rate hammer has yet to fall would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. then the printing starts again leading to further dilution of currency . 25pc and possibly beyond, also raising risk RBA hikes past 3. A 30year investment for most. Verified account Protected Tweets @; Suggested users In this conversation. See new Tweets. 5k USD when you started this fund in May 2020. Forecast looks good. Retweets. 1:56 AM · Jul 29, 2022 · Twitter Web App. “ANZ's David Plank and Jack Chambers have today updated their RBA QE3 forecast to a potential program that could be as large as $189 billion, bringing them in line with Westpac's Bill Evans who is projecting a $150bn program for QE3 @Johnkehoe23 @ANZ_Newsroom @WestpacMacro”We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. New RBA analysis shows that between 15% and 17% of all Aussie borrowers are likely to experience negative cash-flows as a result of rate hikes in the RBA's base-line and adverse scenarios“@KellyAlspals @cjoye ALD share price hasn't moved much, so either no productivity or wage-rate spiral imo. Sign upNSW Treasurer Daniel Mookhey today reveals that Perrottet/Kean had planned to burden NSW taxpayers with another $25bn of debt to allow their investment arm, TCorp, to punt this money on stocks. Verified account Protected Tweets @; Suggested usersLog in. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. commodities are a grand idea #BTC“Aussie house price losses exceed 10%, Sydney losses breach 14%: 43 year record in sight 'Stablecoin' Breaks Peg As Circle Admits Billions Stuck With SVB up. “@bluntman_eth @Tombeecon @cjoye So they just entered the real estate market. Sydney house prices plummet like it's 1983. 7%; Brisb off 1. @cjoye And then the currency will fall, inflation will accelerate and rates will need to go even higher than they would’ve needed to in the first place. Verified account Protected Tweets @; Suggested usersIn this conversation. 28. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. *Potential for another RBA hiking cycle >4%. Aussie house prices fell in 2022 by their largest margin since records began in 1980. @parrapower2022 @solo_dio_ @rabbit_wealth @AvidCommentator @BikoKonstantin1 @Aus__Property @rabbit_wealth @justthink1 @cjoye . We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. 6% for one year but if taken from the peak in Sept 21 its -30% plus. It’s funny because traders on the street know that on Friday. Sydney prices have fallen by 11. 7%. “House price crash update: Syd prices down 6. and @Johnkehoe23. Wonderfully cherry picked data in desperation to keep credibility of the narrative that allows them to be. They all have movies on Netflix, and Netflix is down 80%. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Found. 4% this time last yr. 5% pa, or 2. 1%, declining at a 17% annual rate, while Brisbane prices fall at 20% annual rate bit. Verified account Protected Tweets @; Suggested usersIn this conversation. Welcome to the Complexity Premia podcast from Coolabah Capital, which is hosted by Christopher Joye, CIO and portfolio manager at Coolabah Capital. Redirecting to /user/cjoye/. “Why is Bitcoin back down at US$22k?”“@cjoye You should dissect Aus equities vs S&P500. When the cryptobros realise the startup founders need to cash in their crypto investments because SVB is experiencing a bank run. 13 Jun 2023 05:35:09“RT @rogerkermode: I reckon there are two generations of ‘finance dudes’ who have never seen high inflation and cannot comprehend the fear i…”christopher joye on Twitter: "RBA now on track to hike rates in June given upside surprise to today's inflation, lifting the cash rate from 3. ↑ Joye, Christopher. 2021 Olympic Medalist, Joey Lye, shares stories and insight into some of the mental skills and strategies that prepared her [email protected] million in crypto cant be withdrawn on FTX- $13. & 50% are admin. Discerning Coins for example is a new way of collecting coins - using the blockchain! Chris, we've talked about this. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. ”We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Aussie housing collapse spreads as Brisbane joins the Sydney and Melbourne crash bit. 04 May 2023 06:47:40Log in. 5%, the…. Replying to. 1:24 AM · Jul 9, 2023 · 10. Our predicted housing recovery continues @FinancialReview (Prelim. Sign upWe would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. . 4%mom) and Melbourne (+0. Log inAnother story this morning with fresh quotes from NSW Treasurer @dmookheyMLC on paying back the Liberal Party's $100bn debt explosion: "When asked about the $40 billion in managed funds administered by the state’s debt arm, Treasury Corp, including a $1. 50% in 2019 to 0. Our globally unique War Lab put 74% probability on military conflict between China/Taiwan and a 45% chance of US-China conflict erupting over next decade based on data up to 2020. “Super strong US employment data will embolden Fed to push to 5. But with a referendum and election coming in the next 12 months, in addition to a $19b surplus. Hard to start a business or buy your first home if you can’t borrow money anywhere”“Aussie house prices moving sideways in February month to date, which is interesting. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Interesting. 6%; 5 city index prices down 1. Sitting on $6. Verified account Protected Tweets @; Suggested users“@ChandAshok @cjoye Totally agree re government mistakes but struggle to understand why ‘independent organisations’ have the power to dial up the misery of Australians in the form of unemployment and increased costs of lending. Log in What does the Credit Suisse bail-in of its hybrids mean for Aussie bank hybrids? @cjoye Back in 2017 I wrote about a small number of Tier 2 and AT1 structures from Genworth + ME Bank that did not convert to equity (ie, went straight to write-off) and which could invert the capital structure hierarchy - predicting a situation where shareholders would push for AT1 or T2 write-offs to minimise their losses, just as happened. Anecdote from my AFR column today: “For Australia’s inflation rate to subside, we will also need more productivity to rationalise the brisk rates of wage growth. “@cjoye After yeeeaars of saving for a deposit and finally getting into the market [at peak Jan 22] we now have to deal with this. 6 billion Snowy Hydro… We've been forecasting a US recession since Jan 2022, which the market has recently converged on. So presumably brought their first home. this conversation. No wonder RBA is slowing down. Jerome Nugent-Smith. Log in Another story this morning with fresh quotes from NSW Treasurer @dmookheyMLC on paying back the Liberal Party's $100bn debt explosion: "When asked about the $40 billion in managed funds administered by the state’s debt arm, Treasury Corp, including a $1. Key takeaways * 15-20% peak to trough in Australian housing prices remains the view. afr. 4%. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. “I did a podcast interview with Koda's David Clark on the coming commercial real estate crash, why a second phase of the housing correction will emerge, the looming. NSW's interest bill will surge past $7 billion/yr according to Treasurer @dmookheyMLC. 3%, Melbourne/Brissie both down 6. In this conversation. According to your own chart the annualized figure for Sydney is approx 11-12%. Interesting. Sign up“@JohnQuiggin @cjoye We're here because Reagan & Thatcher's neoliberal agenda of crushing unions by offshoring manufacturing to China (& continued by Clinton & Blair) . Sign upchristopher joye @cjoye. 2B cash! @cjoye Aussie house prices now correcting fast as rates rise, led by Sydney and Melbourne: RBA will struggle to lift past 1. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. The news is not good: "We construct a new ‘weighted-median’ measure of…” Honestly, we hit the limit current incomes can support. 10% in more pain for borrowers and home owners. “The RBA is hierarchical, insular, supercilious, hubristic, resistant to outside influence, and exceptionally slow to recognise and respond to its own mistakes. True, but houses / home units are hard to beat. . “India is an important ally that can’t be trusted Replying to @cjoye Usecases for blockchain are only limited by the imagination. 1. christopher joye on Twitter: "Morning!" / Twitter. Investors want little to do with a sector heading for a big dose of reality. 1. Sign upLog in. I am not a house price bull. 75% bonds or 5,6% annuity products without losing any skin to the middleman, market would be below 4,000 point instantly! Once BoJ st“Mortgage stress to rise as RBA flags risk of higher rates in. "We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. estimates will revise down a bit. 7% on 376 auctions (@corelogicau) vs 49. “@cjoye Chris, you do realise that we have 30,000 arrivals per month, when in April we only started 2500 new dwellings? There are people coming from overseas using foreign currency to rent or buy property with currency that has appreciated against the Aud by 15% in the past six months. Fun interview with nabtrade on bond markets. @cjoye After some cajoling, I’ve dusted off my double barrel shottie and have agreed to track, hunt and eliminate the biggest housing bull of them all: @TheKouk @cjoye And then the currency will fall, inflation will accelerate and rates will need to go even higher than they would’ve needed to in the first place. Acquire everything! It’s a bull market! Equities are cheap! The buy-the-dip-reflex will prevail! Central banks will slash rates and lift their inflation targets!We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Verified account Protected Tweets @; Suggested usersWe would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Expect a global recession, continuing asset price declines, and waves of defaults, writes cjoye. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Youre allowed to tweet at new cycle-low milestones only. Sign upLog in. ly/3pmX9Dk. Verified account Protected Tweets @; Suggested usersSign up. afr. Funny thing is many keep saying it hasn't crashed yet. Log inchristopher joye @cjoye 7h One of the more interesting questions going around is whether bonds issued for environment, social and/or governance (ESG) purposes attract a lower. 4. . We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. @cjoye, @masters_joanne, @ImpactEconAU & @markgkenny. christopher joye @cjoye. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. christopher joye. "It's global cyber war out there". Australia needs to produce more with fewer people. . non-bank wholesale funding costs? Seems like there is further upward pressure from o/s debt markets coming here which could even further exarcebate the fixed to variable, and those currently on variable. 9. 1%; Brisbane prices down 0. I still haven’t seen you clearly outline why rates will stay high over the medium to long term, when nothing has fundamentally permanently changed since 2019. Log in. 5%, the Bank of Canada at 4. @cjoye. ConversationA not so tiny drop in some parts of the country. 04 Jun 2023 22:01:37We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Job cuts over 18mo. 2:58 AM · Jun 30, 2023. . We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us.